FLIP NC Elections Results LIVE Blog

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9:42pm, 11.13.18

Official vote totals are in, and the final results show Dems netting 10 seats in the NC House and 6 seats in the NC Senate, breaking the supermajority in both chambers and bringing us 2/3rd of the way to breaking the majority in the NC House! Several races remain within the recount margin of 1 percent, and Bill Brawley has already requested a recount in NC-H103, but these results are unlikely to change in any significant way. For more on these races and what these results mean for 2020, check out our detailed election analysis.

9:42pm, 11.13.18

Our 2018 election analysis is up – check it out here!

4:19pm, 11.13.18

While absentee and provisional ballots are still being counted, Democrats will likely have picked up 10 seats in the NC House (flipping 12 while losing only 2) and 6 seats in the NC Senate once all ballots are counted. One seat in each chamber is still too close for a final call: Rachel Hunt (D) currently leads in NC House District103 by 64 votes, while Harper Peterson (D) leads in NC Senate District 9 by just 36 votes.

Stay tuned! We’ll begin posting election analysis and new maps in the coming days!

9:32am, 11.7.18

Will all precincts reporting but absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted, several races in the NC House and NC Senate remain too close to call, and a recount is possible. Dems have officially gained 9 seats in the NC House and 3 seats in the NC Senate and look poised to pick up 3 additional seats in the NC Senate: Michael Garrett (D) leads by 763 votes in NC-S27, Kirk DeViere (D) leads by 306 votes in NC-S19, and Harper Peterson (D) leads but with just 36 votes in NC-S9. Dems are trailing in 2 very tight races in the NC House, and these remain too close to call: Erica McAdoo (D) trails her Republican opponent by just 295 votes in NC-H63, and Rachel Hunt (D) trails by just 52 votes in NC-H103.

12:51am, 11.7.18

Marcia Morgan (D) in NC-H19, Lisa Mathis (D) in NC-H51, Erica McAdoo (D) in NC-H63, Aimy Steele (D) in NC-H82, and Gail Young (D) in NC-H83 all substantially outperformed expectations for their districts and should definitely run again in 2020!

12:44am, 11.7.18

Wesley Harris (D) has won NC-H105! And Christy Clark (D) is up by 317 in NC-H98 with 100% of precincts reporting.

12:34am, 11.7.18

The race to break the supermajority in the NC Senate is super close and Dems may just do it! Dems need to pick up 6 seats and have clearly won 3: NC-S15, NC-S17, and NC-S41. Dems also lead by 763 votes in NC-S27, by 306 votes in NC-S19, and by 38 votes in NC-S9 with 100% of precincts reporting!

12:30am, 11.7.18

We’re back, and Brandon Lofton (D) has won NC-H104! Still one precinct left to report in NC-H98, NC-H103, and NC-H105.

11:59pm, 11.6.18

We’re still waiting on Mecklenburg County – one precinct each in NC-H98, NC-H103, NC-H104, and NC-H105. Meanwhile, we’re going to have a beer to celebrate breaking the supermajority! We’ll report back when Mecklenburg County finishes reporting…

11:41pm, 11.6.18

Dems have won NC-H35, NC-H36, and NC-H37!! Dems have broken the supermajority and restored Governor' Cooper’s veto.

11:38pm, 11.6.18

Dems lead NC-H35 by 8 points with 9 of 19 precincts reporting, NC-H36 by 2.5 points with 14 of 18 precincts reporting, and NC-H37 by 3 points with 9 of 17 precincts reporting.

11:19pm, 11.6.18

Dems have lost NC-H20. We’re still awaiting final results in these key Wake and Mecklenburg districts: NC-H35, NC-H36, NC-H37, NC-H98, NC-H103, NC-H104, NC-H105.

11:13pm, 11.6.18

Dems have won two NC Senate seats so far: NC-S15 and NC-S41. Dems lead in 5 additional NC Senate seats: NC-S19 (by 306 votes) with 100% reporting, NC-S17 by 17 points with only 3 of 37 precincts reporting, NC-S18 by 2.5 points with 35 of 55 reporting, NC-S9 by 0.4 points with 35 of 43 precincts reporting, and NC-S27 by 0.2 points with 61 of 64 precincts reporting.

11:01pm, 11.6.18

Dems need to win one of the following NC House seats to break the GOP supermajority: NCH-35, NC-H36, NC-H37, NC-H63, NC-H74, NC-H75, NC-H98, NC-H103, NC-H104, or NC-H105.

10:59pm, 11.6.18

With 100% of precincts reporting, Erica McAdoo (D) trails Stephen Ross by just 295 votes. This race is too close to call, and we will need to wait for all of the absentee and provisional ballots to be counted.

Marcia Morgan came close to flipping NC-H19 but fell 2.5 points short.

10:43pm, 11.6.18

All of the flippable districts in Mecklenburg County remain tight. Dems are up 2 points in NC-H98 with 3 precincts left to report, 0.2 points in NC-H103 with 1 precinct left to report, 3.5 points in NC-H104 with 1 precinct left to report, and 4 points in NC-H105 with 2 precincts left to report.

10:38pm, 11.6.18

Democrats have flipped their 5th seat: NC-H119! With two likely losses, Dems need to pick up one more seat in Wake or Mecklenburg Counties to break the supermajority in the NC House.

10:26pm, 11.6.18

In Mecklenburg County, Brandon Lofton (D) leads by 4 points with 25 of 28 precincts reporting in NC-H104. Wesley Harris (D) leads by 5 points in NC-H105 with 12 of 15 precincts reporting. Rachel Hunt (D) leads by 1 point in NC-H103 with 14 of 17 precincts reporting.

10:23pm, 11.6.18

We’re continuing to wait for all Election Day results from Wake County to come in.

10:22pm, 11.6.18

Dems have officially lost NC-H7. That’s 4 seats flipped for Dems in the House, 1 seat lost so far tonight.

Democrat Natasha Marcus leads by 19 points with 5 of 28 precincts reporting in her effort to flip NC-S41.

Dem Kirk DeViere leads by 1.2 points in his effort to flip NC-S19 with 45 of 50 precincts reporting.

10:12pm, 11.6.18

Dems are trailing by 2-3 points in close races to flip NC-H19 and NC-H20 in Wilmington area.

10:05pm, 11.6.18

Democrats have flipped 4 seats - NC-H8, NC-H25, NC-H61, NC-H93 - in the House but are likely to lose 2 – NC-H7 and NC-H12. Many flippable districts for Dems remain in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties.

Dem. James Gailliard has flipped NC-H25 by 6 points.

Dem. Ray Russell has flipped NC-H93 by 4 points in Boone!

Dem. Wesley Harris is up 6.5 points with 9 of 15 precincts reporting in southern Mecklenburg County in NC-H105.

9:57pm, 11.6.18

NC-H63 is in a dead heat with 15 of 20 precincts reporting.

In NC-H25, James Gailliard is up 6 points with 18 of 19 precincts reporting.

Brandon Lofton leads by 5 points in NC-H104 with 21 of 28 precincts reporting.

Joe Sam Queen leads by 6 points in NC-H119 with 27 of 30 precincts reporting.

Ray Russell leads by 4 points with 36 of 37 precincts reporting in his bid to flip NC-H93.

Republicans have held NC-H51 in the Sanford area.

9:50pm, 11.6.18

In NC-H19, Dem. Marcia Morgan is locked in a tight race with Ted Davis, trailing by just 1 point with 10 of 15 precincts reporting. This would be a pick up for the Dems.

9:40pm, 11.6.18

Democratic candidates are trailing in their efforts to pick up seats in NC-H1 and NC-H2 and to hold seats in NC-H7 and NC-H12. Overall, Democrats are struggling in rural areas of the state while doing very well in the urban areas.

9:36pm, 11.6.18

Anita Earls (D) has won the race for the NC Supreme Court, defeating incumbent Barbara Jackson.

9:34pm, 11.6.18

James Galliard (D) is up 4 points in NC-H25 with 13 of 19 precincts reporting. This would be a pick up for Dems, but it is closer than expected.

9:32pm, 11.6.18

Two Amendments – Board of Ethics Commission and Judicial Appointments – will be defeated. The Photo ID Amendment is up about 8 points with about 50 percent of precincts reporting. All of the precincts in Mecklenburg and Wake County have yet to report.

9:29pm, 11.6.18

Aimy Steele (D) is down just 2 points in heavily Republican-leaning NC-H82 with 9 of 19 precincts reporting. This would be a major upset.

9:27pm, 11.6.18

We’re still waiting on Election Day votes in Forsyth, Guilford, Mecklenburg, and Wake Counties.

9:26pm, 11.6.18

Erica McAdoo (D) is holding on to a 2.5 point lead with 6 of 20 precincts reporting in her bid to flip NC-H63 in Alamance County.

9:22pm, 11.6.18

D. Cole Phelps (D) is down just 4 points in NC-S1 with 58 of 90 precincts reporting. This seat leans about 10 points Republican.

9:21pm, 11.6.18

In the NC Senate, Kirk DeViere (D) is up 6 percent with 30 of 50 precincts reporting, and Mack Paul (D) is up 11 percent with 6 of 55 precincts reporting in their bids to flip NC-S19 and NC-S18, respectively.

9:12pm, 11.6.18

Joe Sam Queen (D) has an 11-point lead in NC-H119 in his bid to reclaim his seat, with 4 of 30 precincts reporting.

9:11pm, 11.6.18

With all precincts reporting, Democrats have held NC-H115 and NC-H116 in the Asheville area.

9:07pm, 11.6.18

Dems chances to break the majority in the Senate looks slim. They are currently trailing in NC-S1, NC-S11, and NC-S13 and would likely need to win one of these to break the GOP majority.

9:05pm, 11.6.18

Dems continue to trail in two seats they currently hold: NC-H7 and NC-H12.

9:02pm, 11.6.18

In possible Dem pickups, Lisa Mathis (D) trails John Saul (R) by just 4 points with 10 of 12 precincts reporting in NC-H51.

8:59pm, 11.6.18

Dems are looking likely to pick up NC-H93 in the Boone area – Dem. Ray Russell has a 22-point lead with 9 of 37 precincts reporting.

8:51pm, 11.6.18

Democrats are currently outperforming expectations in districts NC-H62, NC-H74, NC-H75, and NC-H103 in suburban Greensboro, Winston-Salem and Charlotte. Dems must overcome larger structural disadvantages in these districts to win, but that appears possible.

8:49pm, 11.6.18

Two seats currently held by Dems look precarious: NC-H12 and NC-H47. NC-H7 also looks like it might go down to the wire.

8:45pm, 11.6.18

Democratic chances look good to flip suburban districts NC-H98, NC-H104, NCH-105 in the Charlotte area; NC-H35, NC-H36, NC-H37 in the Raleigh area; and NC-H19 and NC-H20 in the Wilmington area.

8:41pm, 11.6.18

Democrats far overperforming early voting turnout margin in metropolitan areas, underperforming in rural areas. Looks like suburban independents are breaking strongly for Dems, while rural independents are breaking for GOP.

8:33pm, 11.6.18

Democrats are up 14-15% in early voting in NC-H104 and NC-H105 in suburban Charlotte. These would be 2 more Dem pick ups.

8:30pm, 11.6.18

Democrats are up 17-21% in early voting in the four competitive Wake County House Districts: NC-H35, NC-H36, NC-H37, and NC-H40. If those results hold, that would mean 3 seats flipped for Democrats.

8:22pm, 11.6.18

Democrats have a real chance to break the majority if turnout and swing voter trends hold!

8:14pm, 11.6.18

It looks like independent swing voters are breaking strongly for Democrats in all the suburban flippable districts.

8:12pm, 11.6.18

The results from early voting look strong for Democrats across much of the state, including in Forsyth, Guilford, Mecklenburg, New Hanover, and Wake Counties. Dems are significantly outperforming their early voting turnout percentage, suggesting that a lot of independent swing voters are breaking for the Dems.

8:10pm, 11.6.18

As expected, two seats in the NC House – NC-H8 and NC-H61 – have flipped for Dems, and one seat in the NC Senate – NC-S15 – has flipped for Dems.

7:41pm, 11.6.18

First look: early voting results for Wake County are looking great – far better than the early voting Dem lean would suggest.

7:38pm, 11.6.18

Stay turned! Our analysis of early voting results is coming next.

7:37pm, 11.6.18

We’ve also been tracking the partisan composition of the early vote in the key NC Congressional districts. Interestingly, while polling shows both US-H9 and US-H13 to be relatively close, there isn’t much sign of a Dem surge in early voting. This raises the (hopeful) possibility that independent swing voters are breaking heavily for Dems in these districts.

7:35pm, 11.6.18


NC-S11: Albert Pacer D-10

NC-S13: John Campbell D-11

On paper these districts are longer shots for the Dems – they lean fairly heavily to the GOP. But the Dem early voting turnout margin has been strong and we’ll watching these districts to see if the Dem candidates can ride that wave to unexpected victories.

7:33pm, 11.6.18


NC-S1: D. Cole Phelps D-6

NC-S25: Helen Probst Mills D-3

NC-S39: Chad Stachowicz D-5

There hasn’t been much sign of a Dem surge in turnout in these GOP-leaning districts. But if independent voters break for the Dems, these districts could be the key to breaking the majority in the Senate.

7:31pm, 11.6.18


NC-S17: Sam Searcy D-1

NC-S18: Mack Paul D-3

NC-S19: Kirk deViere D-EVEN

Each of these districts had a strong Dem surge of 7-9 percent in the early voting turnout. These districts should be close and Dem wins here would mean breaking the GOP supermajority in the Senate.

7:27pm, 11.6.18


NC-S9: Harper Peterson D+2

NC-S27: Michael Garrett D+1

Roy Cooper won both of these districts by a small margin, and the turnout margin in early voting has also been a bit more favorable for Dems compared to 2016.

7:24pm, 11.6.18


NC-S9: Harper Peterson D+2

NC-S27: Michael Garrett D+1

Roy Cooper won both of these districts by a small margin, and the turnout margin in early voting has also been a bit more favorable for Dems compared to 2016.

7:20pm, 11.6.18


NC-S15: Jay Chaudhuri D+51

NC-S41: Natasha Marcus D+8

These districts in Wake and Mecklenburg counties were re-drawn since 2016 in a way that is much more favorable for Dems. They should be easy pickups tonight.

7:16pm, 11.6.18

Next we’ll post a quick guide to the GOP-held seats most likely to flip in the NC Senate and – good news! – there are no vulnerable Dem-held seats in the NC Senate.

7:14pm, 11.6.18








We’ll also be watching 6 Dem-held NC House seats that may be vulnerable. You can find more information about these districts here.

7:09pm, 11.6.18


NC-H1 Ron Wesson D-7

NC-H63 Erica McAdoo D-4

NC-H103 Rachel Hunt D-8

NC-H118 Rhonda Cole Schandevel D-17

In the final four flippable NC House districts we’re following, the early voting turnout margins show little sign of a Democratic surge relative to 2016. These districts could still be competitive, though, especially if independent voters break sharply for Dems.

7:03pm, 11.6.18


NC-H2 Darryl Moss D-11

NC-H19 Marcia Morgan D-6

NC-H20 Leslie Cohen D-6

NC-H51 Lisa Mathis D-9

NC-H62 Martha Shafer D-10

NC-H74 Terri LeGrand D-10

NC-H75 Dan Besse D-7

NC-H93 Ray Russell D-5

These are the kinds of seats Dems need to win to break the majority in the NC House. Relative to 2016, the early vote margin has shifted in favor of Dems in these districts, but they need to overcome a significant partisan disadvantage in each. To win these districts, Dems likely need a combination of strong turnout on Election Day and independent voters switching from GOP candidates in 2016 to Dem in 2018.

6:56pm, 11.6.18


NC-H35: Terrence Everitt D-1

NC-H36: Julie Von Haefen D-2

NC-H98: Christy Clark D-1

NC-H105: Wesley Harris D-1

These four suburban Wake and Mecklenburg counties share a similar profile: a strong Democratic edge in early voting turnout relative to 2016 (especially in NC-H36), a slightly right-leaning district, and a strong Republican incumbent. These four districts will be key in breaking the supermajority.

6:50pm, 11.6.18


NC-H37: Sydney Batch D-2

NC-H104: Brandon Lofton D+3

NC-H119: Joe Sam Queen D-EVEN

These three GOP-held districts are the competitive districts that appear most likely to flip. Joe Sam Queen lost his seat in NC-H119 by just a few hundred votes in 2016 and looks poised to reclaim it in 2018. The Dem turnout margin in early voting is up sharply relative to 2016 in NC-H104 and especially in NC-H37.

6:44pm, 11.6.18


NC-H8: Kandie Smith D+30

NC-H25: James Gailliard D+11

NC-H61: Pricey Harrison, D+52

These districts were re-drawn since 2016 to be much more favorable for Dems. Barring a major surprise on Election Day, they should be relatively easy pickups for Democrats.

6:38pm, 11.6.18

With an hour to go until the polls close, we’re going to bounce around to some of the key races that we’ll be watching tonight in the NC House and NC Senate. We’ll start with the NC House, where Dems need to flip 4 seats (net) to break the supermajority and 15 seats to break the majority.

6:32pm, 11.6.18

Both the NC House and NC Senate are in play tonight. Dems’ odds of breaking the supermajority are a bit better in the NC House, where Dems only need to flip 4 seats (net) out of 120. With a big enough blue wave across the state, Dems could break the majority in both chambers. Based on the partisan makeup of the districts and early voting numbers so far, it looks like Dems’ chances to break the majority are actually slightly better in the Senate.

6:24pm, 11.6.18

One note of caution: There are substantial differences between the folks who vote early and those who vote on Election Day. Across the state as a whole, Dems are more likely to vote early, and this is especially true in rural areas. In some parts of the state, though, like suburban Mecklenburg County, Republicans are more likely to vote early. So don’t get too excited or disappointed by the initial early voting numbers!

6:18pm, 11.6.18

We’ll get our first sense how swing voters are voting in 2018 when the early voting numbers are released by the Board of Elections. We should get those numbers not long after the polls close tonight, and we’ll have some time to look at those results as we wait for the Election Day results to come in.

6:12pm, 11.6.18

Because the legislative maps are strongly tilted in the GOP’s favor, Dems need to win in districts that lean slightly Republican to break the supermajority in the NC House or NC Senate. Dems need to win in districts that lean moderately Republican to break the majority.

Two things can help Dems win in these districts: (1) winning the turnout battle with a strong surge in left-leaning voters and (2) swing voters switching from GOP candidates in 2016 to Dems in 2018.

We’ve been tracking early voting turnout in every legislative swing district and comparing it with 2016 early voting turnout. We’ll share some of those numbers over the next hour or so for the races we’re watching closely.

6:05pm, 11.6.18

As we wait for the polls to close tonight, we’ll kick off our election coverage with a look at some of the races and numbers we’ll be watching closely tonight. 

6:00pm, 11.5.18

Follow our election night live blog as the results for these critical races roll in!

We’ll be tracking all 120 NC House and 50 NC Senate races, keeping you up to date on how close we are to breaking the supermajority and majority in each chamber and where each “flippable” NC House and NC Senate district stands throughout the night. We’re also keeping an eye on the vulnerable Dem-held districts.