How We Determined Which Districts Are "Flippable"
***Updated in March 2018 to reflect Supreme Court's partial stay on SPecial master's NC House Map, returning Wake and Mecklenburg County districts to those drawn under the GOP's 2017 map.***
To identify the most flippable NC House and NC Senate districts under the Special Master’s map, we analyzed precinct-level results from the last several elections.
We determined our strategic targets based primarily on where the NC House or Senate race itself was close in 2016 (or 2012/2014) and/or how Democrats performed in the district in four key statewide races in 2016.
The statewide races we used were: Governor and US Senator (two of the best predictors of outcomes in contested NC House and NC Senate races in 2016), Attorney General (good proxy for pure Dem vote), and President. The Presidential race wasn't one of the strongest predictors of outcomes in 2016 legislative races, but in Virginia, Alabama, and other special elections in 2017, Democrats made big gains in many areas where Clinton did well, so we've factored that in here.
US House Districts
Due to extreme partisan gerrymandering, even the most flippable congressional seats would require a 13-point swing to flip under the current map. On our interactive precinct maps, we include the closest two, US House District 2 (includes parts of Wake County) and US House District 13 (includes part of Guilford County), which are Swing Left's NC targets.