The Most Competitive NC Senate Districts in 2020

Updated September 30, 2020

In the NC Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to break even and five seats to take the majority.

The new NC Senate map improves the landscape for Democrats in several ways: four of the highly competitive seats Democrats flipped will be easier to hold in 2020; two districts in suburban Charlotte and Raleigh should be relatively easy pickups; and two districts in the Rocky Mount and Winston-Salem areas have also become more favorable for Democrats.

Despite these improvements, Republicans retain a structural advantage under the new NC Senate map. To take the majority, Democrats will need to win in three districts with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by 5 to 8 points. While this is a bigger swing than what is needed to flip the pivotal seats in the NC House, there are fewer vulnerable Democrat-held seats to defend in the NC Senate.

With outstanding candidates and well-targeted resources, Democrats have a chance to break the majority in the NC Senate in 2020. Help Democrats cross the finish line! Get involved with FLIP NC’s efforts or make plans to volunteer with and/or donate to one of the campaigns – we’ve included links to their websites below.

Note: For each district below, we report (based on the current district lines) the two-party vote margin for the 2018 NC House and NC Senate candidates, the 2016 gubernatorial candidates, and an overall estimated partisan lean for 2020.

THE EASY PICKUPS

1. NC-S39 - Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), FLIP SCORE: D+25

2. NC-S18 - Franklin & Wake Counties (N. Raleigh), FLIP SCORE: D+6

In 2018, Democrats won 30 of the 32 NC House and NC Senate seats in Mecklenburg and Wake counties, losing only one NC Senate district in each due to the extreme Republican gerrymandering of the 2018 maps. Under the new maps, both districts should be easy pickups for Democrats. NC-S18 in Franklin and northern Wake County now leans Democratic by 6 points, and the new NC-S39 now leans Democratic by 25 points! Winning these seats will bring Democrats within two seats of breaking the majority in the NC Senate.

In NC-S39, the Democratic candidate is DeAndrea Salvador, a fifth generation Charlottean and the founder of two groundbreaking Charlotte-based organizations focused on energy efficiency and sustainability. She serves on the boards of Clean Air Carolina and Youth Empowered Solutions, and she was on the Mecklenburg County Air Quality Commission for three years and was recognized as one of the Charlotte Mecklenburg Black Chamber of Commerce’s "30 under 30" and honored as a 2019 AACSB Influential Leader.

In NC-S18, the Democratic candidate Sarah Crawford. She has dedicated her career to serving the people of Wake and Franklin Counties through her work in nonprofits, including organizations in higher education and health and human services. She currently serves at Single Stop, helping families by connecting them to existing resources that put them on a path to economic stability and prosperity. Previously, she worked at the Tammy Lynn Center for Developmental Disabilities in Wake County. Crawford plans to prioritize education and Medicaid expansion.

The Pivotal Districts

Winning the final seats needed to break the majority in the NC Senate remains challenging for Democrats under the 2020 maps, requiring victories in districts with a partisan lean that favors Republicans by 5 points or more.

NC-S1 and NC-S31 provide the best opportunities for Democrats to pick up the two seats required to break the majority in 2020. In each of these districts, there are signs that a strong candidate executing the right electoral strategy can win in 2020.

3. NC-S1 - Northeastern NC, FLIP SCORE: D-5

In 2018, Democratic candidate D. Cole Phelps improved on Gov. Cooper’s 2016 performance in the district. But more striking was how well the NC House candidates performed within the district. Tess Judge, in particular, who ran in NC-H6, overperformed the partisan lean of her district by over 15 points! With Judge running for this NC Senate seat in 2020, this race will be extremely competitive!

Judge is a businesswoman who serves on several local, state, and regional boards. She is dedicated to protecting the land and water resources that make fishing, farming, and tourism vital to her district.

4. NC-S31 - Davie & Forsyth counties, FLIP SCORE: D-5

NC-S31 in Davie and Forsyth counties became much more competitive for Democrats under the new maps, shifting the partisan lean of the district 14 points to the left.

The Democratic candidate running for this seat is Terri LeGrand, a financial aid administrator at Wake Forest University who is also an attorney. In 2018, she ran a strong campaign in a right-leaning NC House district, overperforming expectations by about 3 points. Among her top issues are job training programs, health care access, public schools improvement, and fair maps.

THE LOnger shots

For Democrats to win additional Senate seats, they will need to overcome longer odds in districts that lean Republican more strongly. If turnout spikes in 2020, three districts where Democrats have a chance to make the election very competitive are NC-S24, NC-S7, and NC-S11, where the pool of untapped voters (registered voters who stayed home in 2016) leans heavily Democratic.

5. NC-S24 - Alamance and Guilford Counties counties (burlington), FLIP SCORE: D-7

While Democratic challenger JD Wooten lost this race in Alamance and Guilford counties by 7.8 points in 2018, a number of positive signals suggest he has a chance to win the seat in 2020, including the retirement of popular Republican incumbent Rick Gunn and a surge in Democratic turnout in the suburban parts of the district. 2020 Democratic primary turnout was up 27% in Alamance County and 21% in Guilford County compared with 2016, indicating that this district could be carried by a blue suburban wave in 2020. The district also overlaps with two very competitive NC House districts – NC-H59 and NC-H63 – which have the potential to drive especially high turnout and down-ballot voting in this district.

JD Wooten is an intellectual property attorney and former U.S. Air Force officer and engineer. His top priorities are to increase funding for public schools, expanding access to affordable healthcare, and promote sustainable economic development in North Carolina.

6. NC-S11 - Johnston & Nash counties (Rocky Mount), FLIP SCORE: D-8

Under the new maps, NC-S11 in Johnston and Nash counties became 4 points more favorable for Democrats. While the 2018 NC Senate and NC House races in these counties were not especially competitive, Gov. Cooper’s 6-point loss in the district gives Democrats some hope for 2020. The pool of untapped voters in this district – registered voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2018 – is also sharply Democratic leaning, suggesting that a strong candidate could flip the district if Democrats can energize their base in 2020.

Born and raised in Smithfield, former state senator Allen Wellons is the Democratic candidate in NC-S11. A family farm manager and attorney, Wellons wants to invest in public schools, expand workforce training programs, and recruit new high-wage jobs to the area.

7. NC-S7 - Lenoir and Wayne counties (Goldsboro), FLIP SCORE: D-9

While the results from the most recent elections are not especially encouraging, Democrats have a chance to flip NC-H7 in a very high turnout election and with a strong candidate. By our estimates, the registered voters in NC-S7 who stayed home in 2018 have a partisan lean of D+14.

The Democratic candidate in NC-S7 is Donna Lake, a retired Air Force colonel who has been on the front lines of health care as a combat veteran, intensive care and community health nurse, and health care CEO. Donna is a first-generation college graduate and served 25 years in the military. She is running to invest in education; offer quality, affordable health care as a human right; and create new rural business opportunities by providing more effective job training. 

The Most Vulnerable NC Senate Seats

In 2018, Democratic challengers won three NC Senate districts – NC-S9, NC-S19, and NC-S27 – by less than a percentage point each. Holding all three seats will be critical to breaking the majority in the NC Senate in 2020, a mission made easier under the new maps, which increased the partisan advantage for Democrats in two of these districts.

1. NC-S19 - Cumberland County (Fayetteville area), FLIP SCORE: D+2

Democratic challenger Kirk deViere flipped NC-S19 by less than 500 votes in 2018, and this seat is likely to remain very competitive in 2020. The vast majority of left-leaning voters in this district are Black, and the pool of untapped voters – those who are registered but did not vote in 2016 or 2018 – leans strongly Democratic in this district, suggesting that NC-S19 will be a much easier district for Democrats to hold if they pursue a statewide electoral strategy focused on turning out the Democratic base.

Sen. deViere, a former Fayetteville City Council member and Army veteran, is the owner/president of 219 Group, a marketing, advertising, and public relations agency. He is committed to affordable housing, public education funding, Medicaid expansion, and environmental protections.

2. NC-S9 - New Hanover County (Wilmington), FLIP SCORE: D+4

Under the new NC Senate map, NC-S9 has become about two points more favorable for Democrats, which is fortunate, because the Democratic incumbent, Harper Peterson, flipped the district blue with less than 300 votes to spare in 2018. Rep. Peterson underperformed the Democratic candidates in the overlapping NC House races in 2018 and the gubernatorial race in 2016 but, with the campaign organization and name recognition he built in 2018, he should be better positioned this year to defend his seat in what will be a rematch of the 2018 race against Republican Mike Lee.

Sen. Peterson previously served on the Wilmington City Council from 1995-1999 and as Wilmington mayor from 2001-2003. He has been a loud voice against the GenX water contamination crisis in New Hanover County and helped upstart the community watchdog group Clean Cape Fear in its aftermath. He has also been a staunch advocate for the film industry, and his platform includes public education funding, coastal preservation, a living wage, affordable housing, and fair legislative maps.

3. NC-S27 - Guilford County (Greensboro/High Point), FLIP Score: D+6

The redrawn NC Senate map shifted the partisan lean in NC-S27 to be about 5 points more Democratic. While Democratic incumbent Michael Garrett flipped this seat blue by less than a percentage point in 2018, it now looks fairly safe for Democrats in 2020.

Sen. Garrett is the owner and operator of a small marketing firm in Greensboro. He grew up in the county and is a proud UNC-G alumnus. He wants to increase teacher pay, invest in public school classrooms, bring more well-paying jobs to Guilford County, expand Medicaid, and lower taxes on working families and small businesses.

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