The Most Competitive NC Senate Districts in 2020

Published November 4, 2019

During the 2018 midterm election cycle, FLIP NC released our guide to the most flippable districts in the NC Senate. Democratic challengers flipped the top six targets on our list, winning the three closest races by less than a percentage point each. Flipping these six seats finally broke the Republican supermajority in the NC Senate, providing just enough votes to sustain Governor Cooper’s veto.

Despite a strong Democratic performance in 2018, Republicans retained a 29-21 majority in the NC Senate owing to their extremely partisan-gerrymandered NC Senate map. But in September, an NC court ruled NC’s legislative maps unconstitutional and ordered 21 NC Senate and 56 NC House districts to be redrawn.

The new NC Senate map will improve the competitive landscape for Democrats in several ways: four of the highly competitive seats Democrats flipped will be easier to hold in 2020; two districts in suburban Charlotte and Raleigh should be relatively easy pickups; and two districts in the Rocky Mount and Winston-Salem areas have also become more competitive for Democrats.

Despite these improvements, Republicans retain a structural advantage under the new NC Senate map. To take the majority, Democrats will need to win in three districts with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by 5 to 8 points. While this is a bigger swing than what is needed to flip the pivotal seats in the NC House, there are fewer vulnerable Democrat-held seats to defend in the NC Senate. With outstanding candidates and well-targeted resources, Democrats have a chance to break the majority in the NC Senate in 2020.

Note: For each district, we report (based on the current district lines) the two-party vote margin for the 2018 NC Senate and NC House candidates and the 2016 gubernatorial candidates. We also report a “FLIP score” that provides our overall assessment of the competitiveness of each district based on past Democratic performance, current incumbent and challenger information, district demographics, and Democratic base turnout opportunities.

As we receive more information about the candidates running in 2020, we will update our targets and rankings.

THE EASY PICKUPS

1. NC-S39 - Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), FLIP SCORE: D+25

2. NC-S18 - Franklin & Wake Counties (N. Raleigh), FLIP SCORE: D+6

In 2020, Democrats won 30 of the 32 NC House and NC Senate seats in Mecklenburg and Wake counties, losing only one NC Senate district in each due to the extreme Republican gerrymandering of the 2018 maps. Under the new maps, both districts should be easy pickups for Democrats. NC-S18 in Franklin and northern Wake County now leans Democratic by 6 points, and the new NC-S39 now leans Democrat by 25 points! Winning these seats will bring Democrats within two seats of breaking the majority in the NC Senate.

The Pivotal Districts

Winning the final seats needed to break the majority in the NC Senate remains challenging for Democrats under the 2020 maps, requiring wins in several districts with a partisan lean that favors Republicans by 5-8 points.

NC-S1, NC-S11, and NC-S31 likely provide the best opportunities for Democrats to pick up the two seats required to break the majority and the three seats needed to take the Senate outright in 2020. In each of these districts, there are signs that a strong candidate executing the right electoral strategy can win in 2020.

3. NC-S31 - Davie & Forsyth counties, FLIP SCORE: D-5

NC-S31 in Davie and Forsyth counties became much more competitive for Democrats under the new maps, shifting the partisan lean of the district 14 points to the left. While candidates for the NC House and NC Senate did not perform especially well here in 2018, these races were generally not competitive, and Democrats did not field particularly strong candidates. Gov. Cooper’s performance in 2016 provides a better gauge of the competitiveness of the district, and with a surge in Democratic base turnout, a strong challenger could flip NC-H31 in 2020.

4. NC-S1 - Northeastern NC, FLIP SCORE: D-6

In 2018, Democratic candidate D. Cole Phelps improved on Cooper’s 2016 performance in NC-S1 in eastern North Carolina. But what was most striking about the 2018 election is how well the NC House candidates performed within NC-S1. Tess Judge, in particular, running in NC-H6, overperformed the partisan lean of her district by over 15 points! If Tess Judge were to run in NC-S1 in 2020, we would upgrade our rating of this race to a dead heat.

5. NC-S11 - Johnston & Nash counties (Rocky Mount), FLIP SCORE: D-7

Under the new maps, NC-S11 in Johnston and Nash counties became 4 points more favorable for Democrats. While the 2018 NC Senate and NC House races in these counties were not especially competitive, Gov. Cooper’s 6-point loss in the district gives Democrats some hope for 2020. The pool of untapped voters in this district – registered voters who did not vote in 2016 or 2018 – is also sharply Democratic leaning, suggesting that a strong candidate could win the district if Democrats pursue a strategy designed to energize their base in 2020.

LONGER SHOTS

Several other NC Senate districts – particularly NC-7, NC-13, and NC-S24 –with a partisan lean of 8-10 points could become competitive for Democrats if they are able to field exceptional candidates. We’ll be keeping an eye on these districts.

The Most Vulnerable NC Senate Seats

In 2018, Democratic challengers won three NC Senate districts – NC-S9, NC-S-19, and NC-S27 – by less than a percentage point each. Holding all three seats will be critical to breaking the majority in the NC Senate in 2020, a mission made easier under the new maps, which increased the partisan advantage for Democrats in two of these districts.

1. NC-S19 - Cumberland County (Fayetteville area), FLIP SCORE: D+2

Democratic challenger Kirk deViere flipped NC-S19 by less than 500 votes in 2018, and this seat is likely to remain very competitive in 2020. The vast majority of left-leaning voters in this district are Black, and the pool of untapped voters – those who are registered but did not vote in 2016 or 2018 – leans strongly Democratic in this district, suggesting that NC-S19 will be a much easier district for Democrats to hold if they pursue a statewide electoral strategy focused on turning out the Democratic base.

2. NC-S9 - New Hanover County (Wilmington), FLIP SCORE: D+4

Under the new NC Senate map, NC-S9 has become about two points more favorable for Democrats, which is fortunate because Democratic incumbent, Harper Peterson, flipped the district blue with less than 300 votes to spare in 2018. Peterson underperformed the Democratic candidates in the overlapping NC House races in 2018 and the gubernatorial race in 2016 but should be better positioned to defend his seat in 2020 with the campaign organization and name recognition he built in 2018.

3. NC-S27 - Guilford County (Greensboro/High Point), FLIP Score: D+6

The redrawn NC Senate map shifted the partisan lean in NC-S27 to be about 5 points more Democratic. While Democratic incumbent Michael Garrett flipped this seat blue by less than a percentage point in 2018, it now looks fairly safe for Democrats in 2020.

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