Update: On Nov. 1, Common Cause, one of the plaintiffs in the legislative case, filed a petition with the NC Supreme Court challenging two of the county groupings in the remedial NC House map: Columbus-Pender-Robeson and Forsyth-Yadkin. In both cases, Republicans made substantial changes to the base map – under the guise of addressing double-bunked incumbents – to make what would have been more competitive districts secure for Republicans. On Nov. 15, the NC Supreme Court declined to expedite the case, so Common Cause dropped it. That means the proposed maps are final. Read our guide to the most competitive districts in 2020 here.
It’s good news/bad news for NC’s maps in today’s state court rulings. A three-judge panel granted an injunction that blocks congressional candidate filing under NC’s current congressional map and wrote that “there is a substantial likelihood that Plaintiffs will prevail on the merits of this action by showing beyond a reasonable doubt that the 2016 congressional districts are extreme partisan gerrymanders in violation of the North Carolina Constitution…”
In a separate ruling, the same three-judge panel approved new legislative maps (NC House and NC Senate) submitted to the court by the GOP-led NCGA. While these maps are, unquestionably, an improvement over those they replace, they leave in place a handful of extreme partisan gerrymanders – and maintain a clear partisan advantage for Republicans.
While acknowledging the issues the plaintiffs cited in their objections, the court essentially ruled that the redrawing process technically followed the court’s requirements, a disappointing – but not shocking – ruling. As we warned, “the [court’s] decree itself issues some specific guidelines [for redrawing the maps] but leaves a lot of room for the GOP to attempt its usual shenanigans.” As always, the NC GOP took every inch, stretched it a mile, and then crossed their fingers in hopes that they could get away with it. And, again, they have.
Meanwhile, the court clearly signaled to the NC GOP that a mere surface appearance of a fair and bipartisan process will likely suffice in redrawing the congressional map.
The good news is that, despite their advantage for Republicans, the new legislative maps give Democrats a clear path to breaking the majority in the NCGA – if we can get enough left-leaning voters to the polls.
Under the new NC House map, Democrats will need a 4.2-point swing relative to 2018 in the most competitive NC House Districts to break the majority. While this means the new map is only a slight improvement over the previous map (which would have required a 5.6-point swing to flip relative to 2018), the new map also expands the field, bringing 6 additional districts within the D-5 range and making some of the most vulnerable Democrat-held districts much safer.
Meanwhile, the new NC Senate map will make it easier for Democrats to hold onto the seats they flipped in 2018 and to pick up the two remaining GOP-held seats in Mecklenburg and Wake counties in 2020. Unfortunately, the new map does not improve the partisan lean of the last two pivotal districts needed to break the majority in the NC Senate; both districts remain in the D-6 to D-8 range, making the NC House the best target to flip in 2020.