How to Support Critical Legislative Districts in 2024

Note: This post was updated on March 6, 2024, following the primaries.

While FLIP NC is shifting our focus to the courts this year, it’s as important as ever to support Democratic candidates in competitive districts across the state and prevent another Republican supermajority in the state legislature in 2024. Look no further than our 2018 post, 99 Reasons to FLIP NC, for a horrifying walk through some of the most extreme legislation the NC GOP has used its power to pass.

Thankfully, there are a number of ways you can take action to help ensure Democrats win critical races across the state.

1. VOLUNTEER WITH A GRASSROOTS ORGANIZATION.

If you’re in the greater Triangle area, sign up to canvass with our friends at Neighbors on Call, who focus entirely on voter outreach to support Democrats in competitive state legislative districts in and near the Triangle.
In the greater Charlotte area, join our friends at Indivisible Charlotte to canvass in NC House District 105, where Tricia Cotham is running for reelection. Cotham ran as a Democrat in 2022 and then switched parties, giving the GOP a supermajority and helping to pass extreme right-wing legislation, including abortion restrictions that she had strongly campaigned against just months before.

2. DONATE TO OR VOLUNTEER WITH A CAMPAIGN. Offer your time and talents to a campaign near you, or financially support candidates in competitive districts across the state.

Below is FLIP NC’s list of the most critical targets and best opportunities for other Democratic wins in competitive districts in 2024.

Note that, in previous years, FLIP NC has generated its own partisan-lean scores for legislative races using past NC House and NC Senate performance in combination with statewide results, which are more accurate in predicting legislative outcomes than using statewide races alone. However, because the legislature is not FLIP NC’s focus this election cycle, we did not generate our own partisan-lean scores; this post reports scores* from Dave’s Redistricting, which were generated using only statewide races. While these scores are valuable in narrowing the target list for Democrats, note that the rankings were adjusted to reflect past legislative voting history and candidates performance in these districts. As a result, the partisan-lean scores shown are not as closely tied to our rankings as in years past.

THE MOST COMPETITIVE NC HOUSE DISTRICTS IN 2024*

Following their takeover of the State Supreme Court in 2022, NC Republicans brazenly threw out the district maps used for the 2022 elections in the NC House and NC Senate and enacted two of the most extreme partisan gerrymanders in U.S. history for the 2024 election. As a result, Democrats must win at least four of these highly competitive districts just to prevent a GOP supermajority in the NC House.

The Critical Districts

1. NC-H5 - Camden, Gates, Hertford, and Pasquotank counties - D+0 (even) - Former NC House Rep. Howard Hunter III is running to reclaim this seat from the first-term Republican incumbent in this incredibly competitive district. This district map has remained unchanged over several cycles but swung widely over the past couple of elections. Hunter won by a significant margin in 2020 but lost by a significant margin under the same district lines in 2022, a year in which Democrats fared particularly badly outside the suburbs.

2. NC-H98 - Mecklenburg County - D-2 - Beth Helfrich is running to take back this seat for Democrats. This district in northern Mecklenburg County has been one of the closest for the past several election cycles, with the seat changing hands multiple times between Republican John Bradford and Democrat Christy Clark. This race is likely to be extremely close again in 2024. Volunteer with or donate to Helfrich’s campaign.

3. NC-H24 - Wilson County - D+3 - Dante Pittman is running against the first-term Republican incumbent in this district. The incumbent won this district, which has not been redrawn, by a sizable margin in 2022, but it has leaned Democratic in past statewide races, presenting an opportunity for a strong candidate to flip it under more favorable conditions in 2024. Volunteer with or donate to Pittman’s campaign.

4. NC-H25 - Nash County - D+3 - Dr. Lorenza Wilkins is running to flip a Republican-held district that has leaned slightly in Democrats’ favor in statewide races. The GOP incumbent has a primary challenger (who almost defeated him last time), and a Libertarian candidate has also joined the race. This district also falls entirely within competitive NC Senate District 11, so voter outreach here can be even more impactful.

5. NC-H105 - Mecklenburg County - D-5 - Nicole Sidman is running to challenge the deceitful Rep. Tricia Cotham, who ran as a Democrat on a strong progressive platform in 2022 only to switch parties just three months into her term, giving Republicans a supermajority and helping to pass a string of unpopular, right-wing bills, including a new 12-week abortion ban – after strongly campaigning against abortion restrictions. As a result of Cotham’s party switch, Republicans were able to override every one of Gov. Cooper’s vetoes last year. The GOP has rewarded Cotham by redrawing her district from strongly Democratic to Republican-leaning.

*Demonstrators show their support reproductive rights and distaste for Cotham after her bait-and-switch*

The good news is that many voters in Cotham’s district will not take kindly to her role in restricting reproductive rights for women. Voters of similar demographics have swung strongly for Democrats where they’ve known reproductive rights are at stake. Join our friends at Indivisible Charlotte to talk with voters about the deceitful Cotham. You can also donate directly to Sidman’s campaign. This district also falls entirely within competitive NC Senate District 42, so outreach to left-leaning voters here can have an even greater impact.

6. NC-H32 - Granville & Vance counties - D+8 - Bryan Cohn is running against the one-term Republican incumbent as well as a Libertarian candidate in this district, which was redrawn from Republican to Democratic-leaning. This district also overlaps significantly with super-competitive NC Senate District 18, where we need to elect current House Rep. Terence Everitt. Our friends at Neighbors on Call have opportunities to canvass for both Rep. Everitt and Bryan Cohn together in their shared precincts. You can also donate directly to his campaign.

Other Opportunities

7. NC-H35 - Wake County - D-6 - Evonne Hopkins is running for this open seat. In addition to her Republican opponent, a Libertarian candidate is also running, which may help split the vote on the right. Democratic Rep. Terence Everitt has held this seat for the past several election cycles. Republicans have redrawn it in their favor for 2024, but the district, which is in a rapidly growing and left-trending area, remains competitive. This district also falls entirely within super-competitive NC-S18, where Rep. Everitt is now running for NC Senate. Join our friends at Neighbors on Call to canvass for both Evonne Hopkins and Terence Everitt together in their shared precincts. You can also donate directly to Hopkins’ campaign.

8. NC-H115 - Buncombe County - D-8 - Rep. Lindsey Prather is running for reelection in this district, which she won by a large margin in 2022. Republicans have since redrawn the district to lean in their favor, but it remains competitive. Help re-elect Rep. Prather by volunteering with her campaign or making a donation.

9. NC-H73 - Cabarrus County - D-9 - Diamond Staton-Williams flipped this seat blue by a two-point margin in 2022. It has since been redrawn to be significantly more favorable for Republicans. Help re-elect Rep. Staton-Williams by signing up to volunteer with or donating to her campaign.

10. NC-H37 - Wake County - D-7 - Safiyah Jackson is running against the two-term Republican incumbent as well as a Libertarian challenger, who may help split the vote on the right. This seat has been drawn to be somewhat more favorable for Republicans in 2024, but with a rapidly growing and left-trending population, it remains competitive. It also falls entirely within super-competitive NC-S13. Join Neighbors on Call to canvass for both Safiyah Jackson and Sen. Lisa Grafstein together or donate directly to Jackson’s campaign.

THE MOST COMPETITIVE NC SENATE DISTRICTS IN 2024*

We would need to win four of these races to prevent a GOP supermajority in the NC Senate.

The Most Competitive Districts

1. NC-S13 - Wake County - D+1 - Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein is running for reelection following her first term in the NC Senate. This district has been redrawn from strongly Democratic to roughly even, making it one of the most competitive districts for 2024. Two Republicans are running in the primary, and a Libertarian candidate has also entered the race. Join our friends at Neighbors on Call to canvass for Sen. Grafstein or donate directly to her campaign.

*Neighbors on Call volunteers canvassing with Rep. Everitt*

NC-S18 - Granville & Wake Counties - D-2 - After three terms of service in the NC House, Democratic Rep. Terence Everitt had not planned to seek reelection to the state legislature. However, after the current Democratic incumbent announced that she would not run for reelection in this very competitive district, Rep. Everitt agreed to run for this critical seat at the request of Gov. Cooper. In addition to his Republican challenger, a Libertarian candidate is also running in this race, potentially diluting the conservative vote and making this a very competitive district for Democrats. Join Neighbors on Call to canvass for Rep. Everitt or donate directly to his campaign.

Other Opportunities

3. NC-S42 - Mecklenburg County - D+2 - Mary Woodson Bradley is running for the seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Rachel Hunt, who is running for lieutenant governor this year. Hunt only narrowly won this district in 2022 and Republicans drew it significantly more in their favor for 2024, but with a strong Democratic candidate and more favorable conditions, this district remains competitive for Democrats. It also entirely encompasses NC House District 105, where Democrats will be working hard to unseat Tricia Cotham. Voter outreach in their shared precincts can benefit Democratic candidates in both districts. Volunteer with or donate to Woodson Bradley’s campaign.

4. NC-S7 - New Hanover County - D-5 - David Hill is running against four-term Republican incumbent Michael Lee, as well as a Libertarian candidate, who may help cut into the Republican vote share. Marcia Morgan, a strong Democratic candidate who has performed very well in Republican-leaning districts in past years, narrowly lost to Lee in 2022, in what was a tough election year; however, Republicans redrew the district to lean five points more in their favor for 2024. Volunteer with or donate to Hill’s campaign.

5. NC-S11 - Franklin, Nash, and Vance counties - D+1 - Democrat James Mercer is running against the two-term Republican incumbent in this district. The district has not been redrawn, and Democrats lost by a significant margin in 2022; however, performance among candidates in statewide races shows roughly even performance, presenting an opportunity for a strong Democratic challenger to flip this district in a more favorable election year.

6. NC-S4 - Greene, Wayne, and Wilson counties - D-5 - Former NC House Rep. Raymond Smith, Jr. is running against the four-term Republican incumbent in this Republican-leaning district. Here, too, while Democrats lost by a significant margin under the same district lines in 2022, Democratic performance in statewide races shows that there is a path to victory for a strong candidate. Donate to his campaign.

*Note: Partisan lean is based on composite scores from Dave’s Redistricting that include the 2016 and 2020 Presidential races, 2020 and 2022 Senate, and 2020 Governor and Attorney General.