Independent Voters: A Common MisCONception

When discussing election results, many analysts make the erroneous assumption that registered Democrats vote for Democrats*, registered Republicans vote for Republicans, and Independent (or “Unaffiliated” in NC) voters are moderate “swing voters” who can be persuaded to vote for one side or the other by a particular candidate or set of issues.

While a small fraction of Unaffiliated voters do, indeed, switch their votes regularly, the majority of Unaffiliated voters are consistently left- or right-leaning and just as unlikely to switch their votes as registered Democrats or Republicans.

One characteristic that makes this group different, however, is that Unaffiliated voters are far less likely to vote than party-affiliated voters. As a result, in the current hyper-partisan environment, the main driver of how Independents as a whole vote in a given election is whether more left-leaning Independents or right-leaning Independents are motivated to get to the polls.

*Also not true; see “older white Democrats in rural areas” in our turnout analysis.