The Most Competitive NC House Districts in 2020
Updated November 15, 2019
During the 2018 midterm election cycle, FLIP NC released our guide to the most flippable districts in the NC House. Democrats not only flipped the top 11 targets on our list, they also managed an incredible upset in NC-H103, gaining a net of 10 seats and finally breaking the Republican supermajority in the NC House (with room to spare)!
In 2018, Democratic legislative candidates outperformed their Republican rivals statewide, but Republicans retained their majority in the NC House (65 to 55) because their extremely partisan-gerrymandered legislative maps engineered a significant advantage for the GOP.
Republicans will not have the same advantage in 2020. In September, an NC court ruled in Common Cause v. Lewis that the maps’ extreme partisan gerrymandering violated our state constitution and ordered the GOP-controlled state legislature to redraw 56 NC House and 21 NC Senate districts.
While not perfect, the new “remedial” maps are markedly improved and significantly expand the competitive landscape for Democrats in 2020, providing a clear path to breaking the majority in the NC House.
Democrats need a net gain of five seats to break even and six seats to take the majority, which will mean holding almost all of the current Democrat-held seats while winning in some even more challenging districts than those we flipped in 2018.
While it won’t be easy, the great news is that the goal of breaking the majority is within reach with strong candidates and an electoral strategy that turns out the left-leaning voters who stayed home in 2016.
Note: For each district below, we report (based on the current district lines) the two-party vote margin for the 2018 NC House and NC Senate candidates and the 2016 gubernatorial candidates. We also report a “FLIP score” that provides our overall assessment of the competitiveness of each district based on past Democratic performance, current incumbent and challenger information, district demographics, and Democratic base turnout opportunities.
As we receive more information about the pending NC Supreme Court challenge to the two county groupings as well as information about the candidates running in 2020, we will update our targets and rankings.
The Most Flippable GOP-Held Districts in 2020
If the gerrymandered maps used in 2018 had remained in place in 2020, Democrats would have faced a narrow path to taking the majority in the NC House that would have required a clean sweep of every district that was remotely competitive – i.e., with a Republican partisan advantage of 7 points or less.
Under the new NC House map, the path to a Democratic majority has improved in two important ways. First, the competitive landscape has broadened considerably, with 11 Republican-held districts very much in play in 2020. Second, the top targets for Democrats have become much more favorable, reducing the size of the Democratic surge needed to take the majority.
While Republicans retain a structural edge under the new maps, the NC House majority is up for grabs for the first time in a decade.
THE MOST FLIPPABLE
With many of the extreme partisan gerrymanders now eliminated from the NC House map, the first piece of good news is that Democrats are slight favorites in three newly drawn districts currently held by Republicans.
1. NC-H63 - ALAMANCE COUNTY (BURLINGTON Area), FLIP SCORE: D+4
Even before new maps were drawn, NC-H63 was one of the top targets to flip in 2020. Democratic challenger Erica McAdoo came within 300 votes of flipping this seat in 2018. With a new NC House map that pushes the district 5 points further to the left and a strong Democratic challenger, Ricky Hurtado, the chances to flip this seat are now even better.
2. NC-H45 - CUMBERLAND COUNTY (FAYETTEVILLE Area), FLIP SCORE: D+1
The new maps also give Democrats a great chance to pick up NC-H45 in Cumberland County. Under the old maps, Republican legislators had perfectly gerrymandered the county by linking all of the Republican-leaning precincts along the southern and eastern edges of the county to form NC-H45; the Republican incumbent won this district by 17 points in 2018. But under the new (fairer) maps, this district leans slightly Democratic. In the precincts that make up the new NC-H45, Democratic candidates for both the NC House and NC Senate outperformed their Republican opponents in 2018.
3. NC-H9 - PITT COUNTY (GREENVILLE AREA), FLIP SCORE: D+1
With the elimination of the extreme Republican gerrymander in Pitt County, a strong Democratic candidate would be the favorite to win NC-H9 in Greenville. The district leans about 10 points further left than it did in 2018; Roy Cooper carried the newly formed district by 1 point in 2016, and Democratic State Senator Don Davis won it by 2 points in 2018. Democrats did not field a competitive NC House candidate in NC-H9 in 2018. Fielding a strong candidate here this election cycle will be critical.
The Pivotal Districts
Democrats are roughly 3-point underdogs in the next set of flippable districts, located in Cabarrus, Forsyth, and Guilford counties. These districts have also been redrawn since the 2018 elections. All three will likely be key in determining control of the NC House in 2020, and the great news is that Democrats have reasons to be optimistic about all each of them.
4. NC-H59 - Guilford County (Suburban Greensboro), FLIP SCORE: D-3
Under the old map, Republicans had drawn Guilford County to maximize their chances to hold two suburban districts, including NC-H59 on the eastern edge of the county. The new maps make NC-H59 about 9 points more favorable for Democrats, giving them an excellent chance to flip this district in 2020. The Republican incumbent, Jon Hardister, has slightly outperformed other Republicans in the district, so it will be important for Democrats to field a strong challenger. But Republicans’ performance in the district has only been possible because Democratic turnout has significantly lagged Republican turnout. There is ample room to reverse the slight Republican lean in recent elections by turning out sporadic Democratic voters here.
5. NC-H82 - Cabarrus County (Kannapolis), FLIP SCORE: D-3
Democrats have been surging over the past several election cycles in Cabarrus County. In 2018, Democratic challenger Aimy Steele came within 6 points of upsetting the Republican incumbent in NC-H82, greatly improving on Gov. Cooper’s performance in the district, and Cabarrus County is trending increasingly Democratic. In 2020, NC-H82 will be 3 points more favorable for Democrats, and Steele is running again. With greater name recognition and a campaign organization already in place, she is well positioned for a win.
6. NC-H74 - Forsyth County (Suburban Winston-Salem), FLIP SCORE: D-4
Forsyth County was also redrawn following the court’s order. Its districts remain extremely gerrymandered, but based on the district lines drawn under the new map Democratic candidates lost NC-H74 by just 3-4 points in recent elections, and this largely suburban district is slowly trending blue.
Within Reach with a Strong Candidate
Democrats are roughly 5- to 7-point underdogs in our next set of flippable districts. While this gives Republicans a sizeable edge, a strong Democratic challenger can certainly overcome this partisan lean and win in each of these districts. Each has its own unique factor that provides greater hope for Democrats than recent election results alone might suggest. (And in 2018, a number of Democratic challengers, including Rachel Hunt, Tess Judge, and Ray Russell, outperformed expectations for their districts by even greater margins than those needed to win in these districts.)
7. NC-H20 - New Hanover County (Wilmington), FLIP SCORE: D-5
Gov. Cooper lost the newly constituted NC-H20, in Wilmington, by just 5 points, and challenger Leslie Cohen came just as close to upsetting incumbent Holly Grange in 2018. The remedial House map leaves in place an extreme partisan gerrymander New Hanover County while drawing out Grange, who has announced her intention to run for governor, and drawing in NC House Rep. Ted Davis, Jr., formerly of NC House District 19. The pool of left-leaning voters who stayed home in NC-H20 in 2018 was about 14 points more left-leaning than the folks who came out to the polls, making the district winnable for Democrats with a big enough blue wave.
8. NC-H12 - Pitt & Lenoir Counties (Kinston), FLIP SCORE: D-6
A strong Democratic challenger has an excellent chance to win NC-H12 in 2020. Not only did Gov. Cooper and State Senator Don Davis lose the district by just 5 points in 2016 and 2018, respectively, but the pool of untapped voters here – registered voters who did not vote in 2018 – leans Democratic by more than 20 points. This district is definitely within reach if the Democrats at the top of the ticket and the NC House candidate in the district can inspire high Democratic base turnout.
9. NC-H83 - Cabarrus County (Concord), FLIP SCORE: D-6
NC-H83, in suburban Cabarrus County, has been trending sharply Democratic over the past several election cycles, and the Democratic candidates for both the NC House and NC Senate significantly overperformed Gov. Cooper’s numbers in the district in 2018. The good news for Democrats here is that Democratic challenger Gail Young is running again in 2020. She will begin 2020 with a strong organization and name recognition as she faces off against a weak incumbent in gun-fanatic Larry Pittman.
10. NC-H1 - BERTIE/CAMDEN/CHOWAN/PERQUIMANS/TYRELL/WASHINGTON COUNTIES (Albemarle Sound area), FLIP SCORE: D-7
Black voters make up the vast majority of left-leaning voters in NC-H1, in eastern North Carolina, and the pool of untapped voters – registered voters who did not vote in 2018 – leans Democratic by almost 30 points. In recent elections, Democrats have lost this district, and underperformed in others like it across the state, as rural Black voters stayed home. Winning this district will depend not only on the Democratic candidate but also on a statewide Democratic strategy and top-of-the-ticket candidates that energize the majority-Black Democratic base.
11. NC-H51 - HARNETT/LEE COUNTIES (SANFORD), FLIP SCORE: D-7
NC-H51 has a similar profile to NC-H1, with Black and Latinx voters comprising the majority of left-leaning voters. Like NC-H1, flipping this district is certainly within reach with a strong candidate – and a statewide strategy and top-of-the-ticket slate that brings the Democratic base to the polls.
The Most Vulnerable Democrat-Held Districts in 2020
To break the majority in the NC House, Democrats need to pick up a net of five seats, which makes defending the vulnerable seats currently held by Democrats absolutely critical. Democrats are significant underdogs in one district, NC-H66, which has been trending sharply Republican over the past decade, and face competitive races in several other key districts.
The Most Difficult to Hold
1. NC-H66 - Montgomery/Richmond/Stanly counties, FLIP SCORE: D-10
With the appointment of former NC District Court Judge Scott Brewer to replace longtime Democratic incumbent Ken Goodman upon Goodman’s appointment to the NC Industrial Commission, this will be the most challenging Democrat-held district to hold in 2020. The district leans Republican by about 15 points, although Goodman managed to hold his NC House seat for five terms.
Key Districts to Hold to Break the Majority
2. NC-H43 - Cumberland county (Fayetteville), FLIP SCORE: D-2
3. NC-H47 - Robeson County (Lumberton), FLIP SCORE: D+2
With the re-drawing of the maps last month, NC-H43 in Cumberland County and NC-H47 in Robeson County became significantly more right-leaning, making them competitive for 2020. Defending these districts is absolutely critical to breaking the majority. The good news is that the pool of untapped voters – registered voters who did not vote in 2018 – leans Democratic by more than 30 points in each district! With a statewide strategy aimed at energizing their base, Democrats can hold both NC-H43 and NC-H47, opening a path to breaking the majority in the NC House.
Democrats Favored but Need to Defend
4. NC-H93 - Ashe/Watauga counties (Boone), FLIP SCORE: D+2
5. NC-H119 - Haywood/Jackson/Swain counties, FLIP SCORE: D+2
NC-H93 and NC-H119 in western North Carolina share a similar profile that presents some good news and a special challenge for 2016. The good news is that Democratic incumbents Ray Russell and Joe Sam Queen flipped these districts blue in 2018 with 4- to 5-point margins despite both districts’ slight Republican lean; the challenge is that Donald Trump was especially strong here in 2016, winning both districts by over 12 points. With strong, well-organized incumbents, Democrats are in a good position to hold these key districts in 2020, but they should not be taken for granted.
6. NC-H37 - Wake County (Holly Springs/Fuquay-Varina), FLIP SCORE: D+2
7. NC-H98 - Mecklenburg County (Huntersville), FLIP SCORE: D+3
NC-H37 and NC-H98 in suburban Wake and Mecklenburg counties also share a similar profile. Newly elected Democrats Sydney Batch and Christy Clark flipped these districts from red to blue for the first time in 2018, each winning by less than two percent of the vote. The new maps make NC-H37 slightly more favorable for Republicans and NC-H98 slightly more favorable for Democrats, but both remain fairly competitive for 2020. The good news is that both districts are trending Democratic; with two excellent and well-organized incumbents, Democratic chances to hold these seats look good for 2020.
8. NC-H24 - Wilson County (Wilson), FLIP SCORE: D+4
NC-H24 in Wilson County should be a relatively safe district for Democrats, but an unaffiliated candidate backed by Republicans came close to upsetting longtime incumbent Jean Farmer-Butterfield in 2018. The Democratic Party must be much more vigilant in defending this key seat in 2020.
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