Following the far-right takeover of the NC Supreme Court in 2022, Republicans in our state legislature threw out the NC House and NC Senate district maps used for the 2022 elections and enacted two of the most extreme partisan gerrymanders in U.S. history.
North Carolinians deserve fair voting maps that allow us to choose our representatives instead of representatives choosing their voters. The first step to getting fair maps is taking back our state courts before new maps are drawn for the next decade.
In the meantime, we must keep up the fight to prevent Republicans from regaining a veto-proof supermajority in our state legislature.
With a midterm election and a backlash to Trump, 2026 has the potential to be a very favorable election year for these races. The 2018 midterm – the first time Trump was in office – was a blue moon election year with no federal statewide races at the top of the ticket. Voter outreach resources and efforts focused heavily on competitive legislative districts. With those efforts – and a backlash to Trump – Democrats flipped 10 seats in the NC House and 6 seats in the NC Senate, breaking the supermajorities in both chambers and putting a stop to a steady stream of harmful right-wing legislation.
We can do it again in 2026 with your support. You can help by volunteering with or donating to the Democratic candidates or by joining one of our grassroots partners in supporting these critical races.
Here are the most competitive legislative districts in North Carolina that need our support to win in 2026.
Note: This cycle, FLIP NC has returned to generating our own partisan-lean scores for legislative races, this time using past NC House and NC Senate performance in combination with 2024 presidential results. We expect these scores to provide more accurate predictions of legislative outcomes than the composite statewide scores we reported from Dave’s Redistricting in 2024.
THE MOST COMPETITIVE NC HOUSE DISTRICTS IN 2026
Democrats must win at least four of these highly competitive districts to prevent a GOP supermajority in the NC House.
Democrats currently hold 49 of the 120 seats in the NC House, exactly the total needed to prevent a GOP supermajority. In 2026, Democrats can build a safer buffer to protect the governor’s veto power by flipping some of the most competitive Republican-held districts while also protecting several seats Democrats won by close margins in 2024.
The Most Flippable Districts
1. NC-H25 - Nash County - D-0.5 - Democrats lost this seat by just one point in 2024, and the margins in the district for the presidential and state senate races were even closer: The presidential was almost exactly tied, while the Democratic candidate for NC Senate carried the precincts in this House district by half a point. Democrats have an excellent chance to flip this district in November.
Dr. Lorenza Wilkins is the Democratic candidate. He has lived in Nash County for more than 25 years. He is a non-profit leader and advocate for education, small businesses, and mental health. Join Team Up NC to help flip this key district in 2026. Or volunteer with or donate to Wilkins’ campaign.
2. NC-H105 - Mecklenburg County - D-0.5 - Republican Tricia Cotham managed to hold this seat in 2024, winning by just 213 votes, or just 0.4 points. And Kamala Harris actually carried this district by less than 1%, suggesting that it is winnable for Democrats in 2026.
In this district, the deceitful Rep. Tricia Cotham ran in 2022 as a progressive Democrat but switched parties just three months into her term, handing Republicans a supermajority and helping to pass a string of right-wing bills, including a new 12-week abortion ban – after strongly campaigning against abortion restrictions. As a result of Cotham’s party switch, Republicans were able to override every one of Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes in 2023 and 2024. Republicans rewarded Cotham by redrawing her district from strongly Democratic to its current form, which is slightly Republican-leaning.
Our friends at Indivisible Charlotte worked hard in this district in 2024, coming close to flipping it, even in a very unfavorable election year. In a more favorable election year – which 2026 is expected to be – this district is certainly flippable. The district also falls entirely within competitive NC-S42, so outreach to left-leaning voters here can have an even greater impact.
The Democratic candidate in NC-H105 is Ken McCool, a lifelong Matthews resident who runs a small family retail shop. He was elected to the Matthews Town Board at 21, making him one of the youngest elected officials in state history. He served multiple terms, including time as mayor pro tem. McCool helped deliver the town’s largest park investment in a generation and helped recruit a major advanced manufacturing campus that will bring high-paying jobs to the region. Volunteer with or donate to McCool’s campaign.
3. NC-H35 - Wake County - D-3 - Democratic challenger Evonne Hopkins lost this seat by just over 3 points in 2024, and Trump carried the district by only about 2 points, making this district a clear target for Democrats to flip in 2026.
Hopkins is running once again. A board certified family law specialist, she owns and operates the Raleigh Law Center. She will fight to fully fund our public schools, support our teachers, and make sure every child has the opportunity to succeed. Volunteer with or donate to her campaign.
The district also falls entirely within super-competitive NC-S18, currently held by Sen. Haseeb Fatmi, so voter outreach here will have an added impact. Join Team Up NC to help win both seats in 2026.
Other Key Pickup Opportunities
The remaining NC House districts on our list of possible Democratic pickups are in largely suburban districts – the same places where we saw a surge for Democratic state legislative candidates in the 2018 midterms, following Trump’s first election.
1. NC-H37 - Wake County - D-5 - The Democratic candidate lost this race to Republican incumbent Erin Paré by 6 points in 2024, but Trump only carried the district by 3 points. With a rapidly growing and left-trending population, this seat will likely be highly competitive in 2026.
Democratic candidate Winn Decker is the son of two public school teachers and has built his career at the intersection of education and workforce policy. He is running to increase teacher pay and make health care and housing more affordable. Volunteer with or donate to his campaign.
The district also falls entirely within super-competitive NC-S13, where Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein won reelection in 2024, so voter outreach here will have an added impact.
2. NC-H74 - Forsyth County - D-6 - Democratic challenger Amy Taylor North lost this seat by just 3.6 points in 2024, sharply overperforming other Democratic candidates here. The district as a whole leans further right – Trump carried it by 7.5 points – but it is winnable in 2026 with a combination of North’s overperformance and a more favorable election cycle.
North is seeking this seat again in 2026. A small business owner, caregiver for her mother, and community volunteer, she has lived in Lewisville/Clemmons for 20 years. In 2008, she created a national healthcare magazine and advocates for public schools, small businesses, and the local economy. Volunteer with or donate to North’s campaign.
3. NC-H62 - Guilford County - D-6.5 - Democrats lost this race by 7 points in 2024, but Harris lost by 6, and the overlapping NC Senate candidates collectively trailed their Republican opponents by only 4 points. With a large enough Trump backlash, this district would be winnable for Democrats in 2026 with a strong candidate.
4. NC-H73 - Cabarrus County - D-7 - Under the newly drawn map – rigged to more heavily favor Republicans – Democratic incumbent Diamond Staton-Williams lost this seat by 6.4 points in 2024, despite running ahead of Harris. Cabarrus County has been gradually shifting toward Democrats, and Democrats could flip this seat back with a more favorable election cycle in 2026.
The Democratic challenger is Thomas Monks, who is committed to inclusive economic growth, equitable access to health care and education, environmental sustainability, and restoring transparency and trust in public institutions. Volunteer with or donate to Monks’ campaign.
5. NC-H82 - Cabarrus County - D-7 - When the Republican legislature re-drew neighboring NC-H73 to make it more favorable for themselves, they simultaneously made NC-H82 in Cabarrus County more competitive for Democrats. While a significant structural advantage remains for Republicans, this seat could be in play in 2026 with a large blue wave and a continuation of recent Democratic momentum in Cabarrus County.
The Democratic challenger is Chris Bishopp, a former Naval officer with decades of public service. His campaign is centered around three core issues of critical importance in rapidly growing Cabarrus County: education, health care, and affordability. Volunteer with or donate to Bishopp’s campaign.
Closely Held Democratic Seats We Must Protect
1. NC-H24 - Wilson County - D-even - Newly elected Democratic representative Dante Pittman flipped this district by 2.2 points in 2024, despite Trump carrying the district by almost 2 points. Pittman’s victory was critical in preventing a Republican supermajority in the NC House following the 2024 election, and we will need to work to protect his seat in 2026. Join Team Up NC to help defend this key district in 2026.
2. NC-H32 - Granville and Vance Counties - D-even - Representative Bryan Cohn flipped this seat in 2024 by just 228 votes! Harris carried this district by a similarly small margin, showing just how close this district is.
The district also overlaps significantly with super-competitive NC-S18, now held by Sen. Haseeb Fatmi. Join Team Up NC to help defend both seats in 2026 or donate directly to Rep. Cohn’s campaign.
3. NC-H115 - Buncombe County - D-even - Rep. Lindsey Prather carried this district by 3 points in 2024, despite Trump winning the district by 3 points. Help re-elect Rep. Prather by volunteering with or donating to her campaign.
4. NC-H48 - Hoke and Scotland Counties - D+2.5 - Long-serving Democratic Rep. Garland Pierce carried this district by 4 points in 2024, but this district has been trending away from Democrats, and Harris carried it by less than a point. Volunteer or donate to help support his re-election.
5. NC-H98 - Mecklenburg County - D+3 - This district in northern Mecklenburg County has been one of the closest for the past several election cycles, with the seat changing hands multiple times. Democratic Rep. Beth Helfrich flipped the district by 4.4 points in 2024, running about 1.8 points ahead of Harris. Volunteer or donate to help support her reelection.
Longer Shots
While the districts above are the most likely to flip in a close election, there is a chance that 2026 will see a bigger blue wave for Democrats than we have seen in recent years. If that happens, here are the NC House districts that could be in play for Democrats and the Democratic challengers fighting for these seats.
NC-H5 - Camden, Gates, Hertford, and Pasquotank Counties - D-8 - Sam Davis III
NC-H63 - Alamance County - D-9 - Ian Baltutis
NC-H64 - Alamance County - D-10 - LeVon Barnes
NC-H59 - Guilford County - D-10 - Elma Hairston
NC-H9 - Pitt County - D-11 - Claire Kempner
NC-H20 - New Hanover County - D-11 - Tim Merrick
NC-H119 - Jackson, Swain, and Transylvania Counties - D-11 - Mark Burrows
THE MOST COMPETITIVE NC SENATE DISTRICTS IN 2026
Democrats need to hold three very close districts and flip at least one from the list below to break the Republican supermajority in the NC Senate.
Closely Held Dem Seats We Must Protect
1. NC-S18 - Granville and Wake Counties - D-even - In 2024, Terence Everitt won the district by just 128 votes, while Trump carried it in the presidential election, testifying to Everitt’s strength as a candidate and the impact of his outreach to voters. In April 2026, Everitt announced his immediate resignation and withdrew from his re-election campaign. Local Democratic Party leaders appointed Haseeb Fatmi to the seat in May. Sen. Fatmi is looking to retain the seat in the November election. He is an experienced attorney and won his first election late last year, to the Wake Forest Town Commission. Join Team Up NC to help defend this key district in 2026. Or volunteer with or donate directly to Sen. Fatmi’s campaign.
2. NC-S42 - Mecklenburg County - D+2.5 - In another incredibly close election, Woodson Bradley won this seat by just 209 votes in 2024. Harris carried the district by 7 points in the presidential here, reflecting the high level of ticket splitting we typically see in this area in state versus national races. With margins so razor thin, Democrats cannot afford to take this district for granted, even if 2026 presents more favorable political conditions. Volunteer with or donate to Bradley’s campaign.
The district also entirely encompasses NC-H105, where Democrats will be working hard to unseat deceitful Republican Tricia Cotham. The Democratic candidate in NC-H105 is Ken McCool, a lifelong Matthews resident who runs a small family retail shop and was elected to the Matthews Town Board at 21.
3. NC-S13 - Wake County - D+3.5 - Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein won re-election in 2024 in this highly competitive district by just over 3 points. Harris carried the district by a similar margin in the presidential. Volunteer or donate to help re-elect Sen. Grafstein.
Key Opportunities for Pickups
1. NC-S11 - Franklin, Nash, and Vance Counties - D-3 - Democratic candidate James Mercer lost this seat by just 2.6 points in 2024, outperforming the margin in the presidential race by about a point. With such close margins in 2024, this district is definitely flippable in a more favorable election cycle. This district offers our best opportunity for a Democratic pickup that would break the Republican supermajority in 2026.
The Democratic contender is James Gailliard, a former NC House member and pastor who is focused on broadband access, affordable housing, and food security. Join our friends at Team Up NC to help flip this district in 2026. Or volunteer with or donate to his campaign.
2. NC-S7 - New Hanover County - D-7 - Democrats lost this NC Senate race by 8.5 points in 2024, but the margin in the presidential race was less than 6 points, presenting a possible pickup opportunity in a more favorable year.
The Democratic candidate is Jessica Bichler, a small business owner fighting for strong public schools, responsible development, clean water and air, and an economy that works for working families. Volunteer with or donate to her campaign.
3. NC-S34 - Cabarrus County - D-8 - Democrats lost this Senate race by 8.7 points in 2024, while the margin in the presidential race was about a point closer. Cabarrus County has been trending more Democratic over the past decade, which might put this seat within reach for Democrats if the 2026 election is enough of a blue wave.
The Democratic challenger is April Cook, a fourth-generation North Carolinian and co-founder and executive director of the Lake Norman Community Health Clinic, helping thousands of uninsured North Carolinians access affordable, quality care. Volunteer with or donate to her campaign.
Longer Shots
The egregious Republican gerrymander of the NC Senate map puts most other seats out of reach unless there is a massive blue wave. With a substantial enough Democratic swing, here are the NC Senate districts most likely to be competitive, and the Democratic challengers fighting for these seats.
NC-S4 - Greene, Wayne, and Wilson Counties - D-10 - Jess Rivera
NC-S1 - Bertie, Camden, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Hertford, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, and Tyrrell Counties - D-12 - Melissa Zehner
NC-S2 - Carteret, Chowan, Halifax, Hyde, Martin, Pamlico, Warren, and Washington Counties - D-16 - Roy Surrett
NC-S24 - Hoke, Robeson, and Scotland counties - D-17 - Catina Hamm
NC-S25 - Alamance and Randolph Counties - D-18 - Southey Blanton