North Carolina is poised to determine a number of key races for the future of democracy in our state and our country. Here’s why – despite *waves hands at everything* – we’re so hopeful and energized for 2026:
ONE: The Enthusiasm Gap in North Carolina Has Flipped. Democratic turnout surged in the 2026 North Carolina primary election compared to 2022, while Republican turnout declined. In particular, 830k people voted in the Democratic Senate race (which wasn’t even competitive), compared to 620k in 2022 – a 34-percent increase. Meanwhile, only 630k people voted in the Republican Senate primary, compared to 765k in 2022 – an 18-percent decline.
Put another way, Democrats had a 14-point margin in primary votes cast in 2026, compared to an 11-point deficit in 2022 – an incredible 25-point swing that suggests a strong chance for a massive Democratic wave in November.
TWO: It’s a Midterm Election Year – and Trump Isn’t on the Ballot. In a midterm, turnout is typically more than 20 points lower than in a presidential year, making large swings in vote margins more likely. That means we have a huge opportunity to win by turning out left-leaning voters who tend to vote in presidential years but sit out the midterms. And Trump is not on the ballot to boost turnout for the right.
THREE: Roy Cooper Is the Top of the Ticket. Not only do Democrats have a strong chance to flip a U.S. Senate seat blue in North Carolina for the first time since 2008, but this race could also be pivotal in returning control of the U.S. Senate to Democrats in 2026. And having a popular former two-term governor and attorney general who has never lost a statewide race at the top of the ticket is likely to increase enthusiasm and boost turnout for Democrats.
FOUR: The 2025 Virginia Election Saw a Massive Democratic Wave. In recent election cycles, the prior year’s results in Virginia have been a strong sign (good or bad) of things to come in North Carolina. AlthoughDemocrats lost the governorship in Virginia by 2 points in 2021, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the 2025 gubernatorial election by a whopping 15 points.
Even more strikingly, the Democratic victory margin in 2025 was much larger than in the first backlash to Trump in 2017, when Democrats won the gubernatorial election by what had seemed at the time like a landslide: 9 points.
FIVE: 2026 Is a Critical Year for Regaining Democratic Control of the Courts – and it’s coming in what’s likely to be a very favorable election year. North Carolina’s courts have become a central battleground in the fight over democracy and fair maps. Republicans currently hold large majorities on both the NC Supreme Court and NC Court of Appeals after sweeping the 2022 statewide judicial races.
In 2024, we began to turn the tide by re-electing Democratic Justice Allison Riggs by just 734 votes! In 2026, every other state court seat currently held by Democrats (but no Republican-held seats!) will be on the ballot. It’s critical that we protect these seats – including reelecting the incredible Justice Anita Earls to the NC Supreme Court and protecting the only three NC Court of Appeals seats currently held by Democrats. If we can do that, then in 2028, we can flip both courts blue – before new election maps are drawn for the next decade.
SIX: We’re Building a Firewall Against Republican Supermajorities in the NC Legislature. For more than a decade, Democrats in North Carolina have fought an uphill battle to prevent Republican supermajorities in the NC House and NC Senate. They have had to contend not only with aggressively gerrymandered legislative maps but also with a handful of conservative Democratic lawmakers who sided with Republicans to override governors’ vetoes and pass some of the most extreme legislation to come out of Raleigh in recent years.
The good news is that in the March primary, Democratic voters sent a clear message that they don’t want representatives who give ground to Republican extremists when they defeated Republican-aligned Democrats and chose by large margins outstanding candidates who will fight for the people.
SEVEN: Democrats Are Putting Republican Seats in the U.S. House in Play. North Carolina will be a battlefield in the fight for control of the U.S. House in 2026. Under a fair congressional map, North Carolina sent 7 Republicans and 7 Democrats to Washington, D.C. But after a new Republican majority on our state courts greenlit Republicans’ aggressive redistricting, their new election map sent 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats. Republicans’ most recent redistricting – at Trump’s request – created a map that significantly favors Republicans in 11 of our 14 districts. Even so, national Democrats believe several of these districts could become competitive in a strong midterm environment.
Democrats need only a handful of seats to regain a U.S. House majority, and North Carolina races, including closely watched contests in US-H1 and US-H11, are expected to draw significant national attention and resources. If the national political climate turns sharply against Republicans, these districts could become key pickup opportunities.
EIGHT: The Big One. It’s the longest of long shots, but if ever there were a time when a big enough wave could overcome the extreme gerrymandering of North Carolina’s election maps to flip the state legislature, this is the election.
We’ve seen dramatic swings across the country in the past year’s elections. The results in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, the surge in Democratic turnout in North Carolina’s 2026 primary, and special election results in states like Texas all point to the potential for a strong backlash environment. With Trump’s approval ratings continuing to fall, not only among Democrats but also among independents, it is at least conceivable that 2026 could resemble other wave elections, such as 2006, when Democrats gained six U.S. Senate seats during backlash to George W. Bush and the Iraq War, or 2010, when Republicans rode backlash to Barack Obama to retake the U.S. House and numerous state legislatures.
The signs of hope and great opportunity are there. Now our job is to get out there and make the most of it!