The national and North Carolina political landscapes have been changing rapidly over the past decade. While much attention has been paid to persuading white moderate “swing” voters who voted for Trump in 2016 to come back to the Democratic party in 2020, less attention has been given to North Carolina’s other swing voters: the registered voters in the Democratic base who are still deciding whether to vote – or vote down ballot – in 2020. With less than 70 days to go until election day, here are 10 critical reasons why a strong focus on appealing to left-leaning voters is key to flipping North Carolina blue in 2020.
1. A Surge in Left-Leaning Turnout Has Been Driving the Blue Wave in NC
The statewide blue wave in 2018 was due in large part to a sharp increase in turnout among left-leaning voters, particularly in the suburbs. In fact, in the seven competitive NC House districts Democrats flipped in 2018 in suburban Mecklenburg and Wake counties, the increase in left-leaning turnout was responsible for a whopping 15-point improvement in the margin for Democrats relative to 2014 and a 6-point improvement relative to 2016. The same pattern held in the 2020 Democratic primary, where Democratic turnout was up 16% statewide and over 30% in suburban areas relative to 2016.
2. NC Voters are Sticking with their 2016 Choices
The alternative to prioritizing a focus on Democratic base voting is persuading a significant number of Trump voters to change their minds. The problem is that 2016 voters in the sunbelt are sticking with their choices. Our analysis of the 2018 elections found that people switching their votes from 2016 was only responsible for about a 1-point swing in the Democratic statewide margin. And a NY Times/Siena poll of North Carolina this year shows a continuation of that pattern, with only 3% of 2016 Trump voters saying they intended to vote for Biden and only 1% of Clinton voters planning to vote for Trump. While there are signs of more vote switching in places like Michigan and Wisconsin, it appears that very few NC voters are truly up for grabs, especially at the presidential level.
3. The Pool of Untapped Voters in North Carolina is Overwhelmingly Left-Leaning
While it’s depressing that most Trump voters plan to vote for him again, the good news is that the pool of registered voters who stayed home in 2016 is overwhelmingly left-leaning. Remarkably, in the same NY Times/Siena poll, registered NC voters who didn’t vote in 2016 support Biden by 28 points! This, too, is completely consistent with our analysis of recent NC elections. We estimate that the pool of registered voters who stayed home in 2016 had a partisan lean of 19 points and that those who have registered since 2016, including many young voters, lean very far left. The evidence is clear; we can win big in NC this fall just by getting left-leaning voters to the polls.
4. Hyper-Partisanship Means There Are Fewer Moderate “Swing” Voters to Persuade
These trends in North Carolina are, of course, very consistent with the patterns emerging nationally. As American politics has become increasingly hyper-partisan, the incentives to focus on a party’s base voters are greater than ever. The number of true “swing” (as the phrase has commonly been used) or “floating” voters – those who split their ticket in different races or who switch parties from election to election – is smaller than ever. And while many NC voters are unaffiliated with either party, most independents consistently vote for one party when they vote. In fact, most of the swing in the independent vote from election to election is driven not by individual voters changing their minds, but by which independent voters decide to turn out. With fewer floating voters to target for persuasion, focusing on left-leaning voters makes even more sense in 2020 than even just a decade ago.
5. Voter Outreach Efforts Focused on Left-Leaning Voters Can Be Very Effective
The good news is that voter outreach efforts geared toward left-leaning voters work. Our internal analysis of FLIP NC’s 2018 voter outreach revealed that our canvassing and text bank campaigns, which connected with left-leaning voters on their values and highlighted the stakes of the election, were highly effective at increasing turnout among left-leaning, sporadic voters – particularly when done ahead of the traditional GOTV period. This effect was over and above the general rise in turnout due to the 2018 blue wave and was strongest among the most sporadic left-leaning voters.
In contrast, our voter outreach efforts targeting more moderate voters had no measurable effect on turnout, and these moderate voters are far less reliable voters when they do get to the polls. Intuitively, it’s easy to see how a personal conversation with a passionate volunteer – focused around a voter’s concerns and values – can convince someone on the fence to vote; it’s much harder to imagine that a single conversation or text exchange with a volunteer is likely to change someone’s mind about Trump.
6. Turnout Helps Democratic Candidates Up and Down Ballot. Persuasion Doesn’t.
Encouraging sporadic, left-leaning voters to vote and to vote the full ballot increases the Democratic vote share at every level; an additional left-leaning voter who casts a ballot can mean 10+ votes for Democrats up and down the ballot. In contrast, convincing a 2016 Trump voter to support Biden is unlikely to help – and may even hurt – down-ballot Democratic candidates if it increases turnout among disillusioned right-leaning voters who might otherwise have stayed home.
7. Focusing on Left-Leaning Voters Centers the Needs and Priorities of the Democratic Base
Aiming for record levels of voter turnout is not only strategically smart but is also far more consistent with progressive values. Winning elections via higher turnout means centering the needs and priorities of the multi-racial, progressive coalition that makes up the Democratic base. That means we win when we run on our values instead of disguising them.
8. Centering White Moderates Sells Out the Democratic Base and Suppresses Base Voting
In contrast, an approach that concentrates on persuasion naturally centers the priorities of the white moderate voters who form the middle of the North Carolina electorate, at the expense of the voters that make up the core of the Democratic base. When this approach is repeated election after election, it leads many folks to the natural conclusion that the Democratic party takes their votes for granted and that there is really little difference for them between the parties, which can be devastating for voter participation in the long run.
9. For a Progressive Future
Voting is a like muscle, and political scientists have documented that voting in one election actually makes people more likely to vote in future elections. In addition to developing the habit, just figuring out the mechanics of how to vote may help to de-mystify the process for young and other first-time voters. Young voters always tend to be more left-leaning than older voters, but this generation of voters under 30 is especially progressive. The sooner we can help them start voting, the better – not just for the 2020 election but for next year and beyond.
10. Building a Movement of Grassroots Volunteers
Voter engagement that’s dedicated to conversations with left-leaning voters often leads to an incredibly enjoyable and rewarding experience for volunteers, making it far more likely that folks come back again and again. Lots of academic studies of voter outreach evaluate how well various tactics, like putting social pressure on voters, work to increase turnout without considering how they impact the volunteer experience. But a tactic that yields gains with voters but drives volunteers away is short-sighted. Strategies that focus on building a committed volunteer base naturally work better over the long haul, and voter outreach built around making personal connections with like-minded voters is the best way to keep volunteers engaged.
Get involved! Help us reach more left-leaning voters this election cycle, and let’s flip NC blue!