The national and North Carolina political landscapes have been changing rapidly over the past decade. While much attention has been paid to persuading white moderate “swing” voters who voted for Trump in 2016 to come back to the Democratic party in 2020, less attention has been given to North Carolina’s other swing voters: the registered voters in the Democratic base who are still deciding whether to vote – or vote down ballot – in 2020. With less than 70 days to go until election day, here are 10 critical reasons why a strong focus on appealing to left-leaning voters is key to flipping North Carolina blue in 2020.
The Democratic Suburban Turnout Surge Continues in NC in 2020
The 2020 Democratic primary on March 3rd provides the latest snapshot of the trends in left-leaning turnout heading into the November general election. The county-by-county change in turnout compared with 2016 provides a clear picture: The Democratic suburban surge continues, while left-leaning turnout in the rest of the state lags behind.
2018 Election Analysis
November 6, 2018 was a great day for progressives in North Carolina. Democrats picked up 10 seats in the NC House and 6 seats in the NC Senate, and number of candidates significantly overperformed expectations, giving us a clear path to breaking the majority in 2020.
For more, check out our 2018 election analysis.
Want to Flip a District? Run a Woman.
Ask an old-guard Democrat what kind of candidate is the safest bet to flip a competitive seat in the North Carolina General Assembly, and you’ll get a pretty predictable answer: A white man. But the 2018 numbers tell a very different story.
Of the 35 Democratic candidates who ran in NC’s most competitive GOP-held legislative districts, 13 are women and 22 are men (across 23 NC House and 12 NC Senate races). Compared with 2016 results, the women outperformed Hillary Clinton by an incredible 10.8 points! In contrast, the men districts beat Hillary Clinton’s margin by an average of only 4.8 points. That’s a pretty stark contrast: Women overperformed Clinton by 6 points more than men! All 13 female candidates beat Clinton’s margin in their districts, while only 17 of the 22 male candidates did. The results are not quite as striking compared with Governor Cooper, yet the trend holds: women surpassed Governor Cooper’s margins in their districts by about 3 points more than men.
Virginia Shows North Carolina the Way
Virginia has provided the perfect two-step road map for North Carolina. First, we need to run strong progressive candidates in all districts that are even remotely competitive, including many where Democrats didn’t field a candidate in 2016. Second, we need to turn out fired-up Democratic voters in record numbers.