The 2018 Democratic wave in North Carolina was driven primarily by a massive increase in voting by left-leaning suburban voters. This surge helped Democrats to sweep 28 of the 30 legislative races in Mecklenburg and Wake Counties and break the Republican supermajorities in both the NC House and NC Senate. Democratic turnout also increased across the rest of the state (relative to the 2014 midterm) but was met by a similar increase in voting by right-leaning voters outside of suburban areas.
The 2020 Democratic primary on March 3rd provides another snapshot of the trends in left-leaning turnout heading into the November general election. The county-by-county change in turnout compared with 2016 provides a clear picture: The Democratic suburban surge continues, while left-leaning turnout in the rest of the state lags behind.
Overall, turnout in the 2020 Democratic primary was up 16% compared with 2016. But the increase was concentrated almost entirely in the major metropolitan areas. Democratic primary turnout increased by:
33% in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metro area (Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Union Counties)
31% in New Hanover County (Wilmington)
30% in Forsyth County (Winston-Salem)
29% in the core counties of the Triangle region (Durham, Orange, and Wake counties)
28% in the Greater Asheville area (Buncombe, Henderson, and Transylvania counties)
27% in Alamance County (Burlington)
21% in Guilford County (Greensboro)
Across the 83 counties that comprise the rest of the state, Democratic primary turnout actually declined by 1% compared to 2016.
These turnout trends are consistent with those from many other parts of the country (e.g., Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia) and reflect, in part, the national realignment of the Democratic and Republican party voter coalitions.
These turnout trends have two important implications for Democratic strategy for flipping the NC House and NC Senate in 2020.
First, critical districts in suburban areas that have historically had a slight Republican lean look to be very competitive for Democrats in 2020. These include NC-H20 (New Hanover), NC-H59 (Guilford), NC-H63 (Alamance), NC-H74 (Forsyth), NC-H82 (Cabarrus), NC-H83 (Cabarrus) and NC-S31 (Forsyth-Davie). NC-S18 (Wake-Franklin) and NC-S39 (Wake) should be easy pickups for Democrats under the new maps.
Second, winning the most critical districts outside of these suburban areas will require a strong ground game designed to turn out sporadic left-leaning voters. These districts include NC-H1 (Eastern NC), NC-H9 (Pitt), NC-H12 (Pitt-Lenoir), NC-H43 (Cumberland), NC-H45 (Cumberland), NC-H47 (Robeson), NC-H51 (Harnett-Lee) and NC-S1 (Eastern NC). The good news is that the pool of untapped voters in each these districts leans strongly Democratic. That means victory in November is within reach – if we can focus on reaching these voters and getting them to the polls.